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Assing too much peterfever
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While discussions of deep engagement and restraint understandably focus primarily on their differences, it is worth pointing out that these worldviews share a number of blind spots. First, both sides exaggerate the importance of the United States in world politics. They assume that when we see regional instability it is either because an absence of U.S. engagement allowed local security dilemmas to flare up (deep engagement), or because an overabundance of U.S. engagement exacerbated regional rivalries (restraint). Except in cases where local actors can confidently take U.S. intervention as a given, however, it is likely that the decisions regional powers make about war and peace are driven much more by local concerns: their particular interests and vulnerabilities, the balance of power with their immediate neighbors, historical rivalries and animosities, domestic incentives and constraints, and so on. Just because the United States must make choices about how to engage with the world does not mean that those choices always matter to other states.
Lastly, the overstretch school cautions that military superiority is not only unnecessary but can also be self-defeating.40 The United States, according to this perspective, is insulated from geopolitical competition due to its remote location, remains safe from major attacks thanks to its nuclear deterrent, and can resort to buck-passing behavior to avoiding paying the price of containment when great power threats do emerge. Pursuing military superiority also has the potential to be ruinously expensive and extremely provocative. In the end, no margin of advantage will ever be adequate because rivals will always try to catch up, and no self-interested nation will ever view a U.S. arms buildup as purely defensive because it knows that intentions can change quickly. Moreover, should the United States manage to restore its superiority, the unintended consequences of unchecked dominance could end up harming its security. For instance, a large margin of advantage can be a barrier to innovation by encouraging officials to emphasize legacy capabilities and concepts that become increasingly outmoded over time. Even more important, without the structural pressure imposed by power parity or something close to it, Washington might be tempted once again to engage in costly interventions against comparatively minor threats that sap its strength and create opportunities for rivals to catch up.
Money is, of course, a necessary component of military superiority, but it is not everything. Sustaining military superiority in a constrained budget environment is very possible. It simply depends more on how the defense budget shrinks rather than whether or how much it does. The degree to which cuts decrease, maintain, or increase military capabilities depends on how they are implemented. Cuts can be targeted, preserving some line items or services while cutting others, or they can be across-the-board, impacting all areas of the budget uniformly, regardless of strategic priorities. History shows that cuts may actually increase capabilities if specific areas of the budget are spared and funds are redirected away from unnecessary or inefficient programs and towards investments tied more directly to strategic priorities, provoking innovation, deliberate retrenchment, and fiscal solvency.53 Despite the advantages of targeted cuts, they are not politically easy to achieve, and only take place when policymakers have confidence in their understanding of the nature of the international threat environment.
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